LNP 8.7% vs ON
Incumbent MP
Tony Perrett, since 2015.
Geography
Central Queensland. Gympie covers the Gympie urban area, other eastern parts of Gympie LGA and some northwestern parts of the Noosa council area. Apart from Gympie itself, the seat’s major centres are Tin Can Bay, Rainbow Beach, Cooran and Pomona.
History
The seat of Gympie was first created in 1873. The seat was abolished in 1950, and restored in 1960. Barring two terms in the early 2000s, the seat has always been won by the Country/National party since its restoration in 1960.
Max Hodges won the seat for the Country Party in 1960. He held the seat until 1979.
Len Stephan won the seat for the National Country Party in 1979. He held the seat until his retirement in 2001.
Upon Stephan’s retirement in 2001, his seat was lost to One Nation’s Elisa Roberts.
Roberts left One Nation in early 2002. She won a second term in 2004, but lost the seat in 2006 to the National Party’s David Gibson. Gibson won a second term in 2009, and a third term in 2012.
Gibson retired in 2015, and was succeeded by the Liberal National Party’s Tony Perrett.
Candidates
- Roland Maertens (Independent)
- Tony Perrett (Liberal National)
- Tim Jerome (Independent)
- Donna Reardon (Independent)
- Michael Blaxland (One Nation)
- Nicholas Fairbairn (Informed Medical Options)
- Lauren Granger-Brown (Greens)
- Geoff Williams (Labor)
Assessment
Gympie is a safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Perrett | Liberal National | 11,829 | 37.2 | -4.5 |
| Chelle Dobson | One Nation | 9,444 | 29.7 | +29.0 |
| Tracey Mcwilliam | Labor | 7,109 | 22.4 | -0.4 |
| Roxanne Kennedy-Perriman | Greens | 1,809 | 5.7 | -0.1 |
| Donna Reardon | Independent | 1,574 | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Informal | 1,392 | 4.2 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tony Perrett | Liberal National | 18,640 | 58.7 | +0.5 |
| Chelle Dobson | One Nation | 13,125 | 41.3 | +41.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Gympie have been divided into three areas. Polling places in the Gympie urban area were grouped together, with the remaining booths split into north and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all three areas, ranging from 55% in the north to 60% in the south.
Labor came third, polling 20% in the south and 25% in Gympie and the north.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LNP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Gympie | 25.0 | 59.7 | 7,096 | 22.3 |
| North | 25.4 | 55.1 | 6,842 | 21.5 |
| South | 20.0 | 60.3 | 3,563 | 11.2 |
| Pre-poll | 20.2 | 60.1 | 9,493 | 29.9 |
| Other votes | 20.2 | 58.4 | 4,771 | 15.0 |
Election results in Gympie at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs One Nation) and Labor primary votes.
I remember this seat for the great soap opera of 2006 with Elisa’s will she/wont she run again [and again in 2009]. Gympie was late to the One Nation party, being the only seat that hadn’t dropped to ONP in ’98 (Tablelands and Lockyer fell in ’98, both MPs left party but the electorate stayed One Nation in ’01). This seat definitely has history of a high One Nation vote, and looking at some other electorate last elections, a lot of ALP preferences just didn’t flow to them. I can still see this as a LNP vs ONP seat, but LNP to hold.
Actually looking closer, the LNP vote has continued to fall from 2012, but a stable right-wing minor party vote % in the high 20’s. That being said, if this seat didn’t fall at the perfect chance in 2015 (Retiring Member, Anti-Newman sentiment), I just can’t see it being lost this election.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Fun fact: Christian Rowan (MP LNP Moggill) ran as the Nationals candidate here in 2004.
If only Labor and Green voters had preferenced One Nation they would have won here. I don’t see that changing this time since allot of Labor voters know that PHON is more extreme than the Nationals.
Any idea why Gympie is more conservative than Maryborough?
Daniel .. Maryborough has a history of manufacturing industry .. Gympie is basically a farming area. Both are conservative – people can be conservative but still vote Labor.
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain
think Andrew Fisher was the last alp candidate to win here
LNP retain
Comparisons about the relative conservatism of Maryborough and Gympie are worthy of consideration.
My first thought was that Maryborough was larger city and that urban voters made up
A larger percentage of electorate in that city. Looking at the Redistribution report this does not appear to be case. Whilst Report does not include electorate areas both seats maps are same scale and just fit onto an A4 page making both seats about same size. Gympie is also a manufacturing city with largest non governmental employer being Nestles Coffee Factory. Maryborough obviously had a heavy industry manufacturing sector that has been in decline for last thirty years.
Both cities are characterised by run down small Queenslander homes. Both had meat industries that have declined.
I can not explain the conservatism of Gympie. Peter Knopke is correct that conservatives can vote Labor but it is a trait that is normally associated with Coalition voters.
I can remember doing an analysis for KAP on voters per square Km. So at some point area data must have been available.
Andrew .. The major difference between the two cities and their associated voting patterns is due to their history. Maryborough with manufacturing and timber was very much a blue collar town whilst Gympie was basically a rural centre. You would probably classify the Labor in Maryborough as old school right wing who are socially conservative. Since the demise of its gold mining industry, Gympie a Country Party stronghold. Maryborough was also the hub of Wide Bay for the public service which obviously boosted Labor’s stocks.